The excitement is in the air as people prepare to make the trip to Columbus, OH, for the 2016 Pokémon TCG US National Championships. Players from coast to coast are coming to compete for the top prize of $10,000 in each age division—the largest prize pool in US Nationals history. On top of that, there will be booster packs, merchandise, and precious Championship Points on the line, plus the prestige of being crowned National Champion. Three days of exciting action are ahead of us on July 1–3.

The US National Championships will use the Standard format, meaning that all cards from XY—Kalos Starter Set through XY—Fates Collide can be used. A lot has changed since Wailord-EX took the event by storm just a year ago. We’ve seen many different decks have success over the course of the season, and now things are shaken up again with the addition of a new expansion. Whether you’re participating in the event or watching the battles unfold, we’re here to give you a preview of what strategies to expect at this unpredictable tournament so you can be prepared.

The Top Contender

Throughout the 2016 season, one deck has been dominant every step of the way—the dreaded Night March deck. No matter how hard people try to counter it, the deceptively powerful team of Joltik and Pumpkaboo continues to have success in the Standard format. All it takes is a turn full of Battle Compressor, Ultra Ball, and Professor Sycamore to realize how quickly damage from the Night March attack can add up. With the incredible drawing power of Shaymin-EX’s Set Up Ability, it isn’t unusual for this strategy to start doing 100 damage (or more) as quickly as the first attack of the game. Even the biggest Pokémon-EX must fear the tiny 30-HP Joltik and 60-HP Pumpkaboo.

The Night March deck continues to win because of its unique combination of speed, power, and consistency. Fundamentally, there aren’t many strategies that can compete with a deck that uses non-EX Basic Pokémon capable of taking Prize cards every single turn of the game. Joltik’s Night March attack only needs a Double Colorless Energy—and so does Pumpkaboo’s, if there’s a Dimension Valley in play—meaning a new one can be powered up in one turn. Decks focusing on Pokémon-EX can’t keep up when exchanging two Prize cards for one, and other decks with non-EX Pokémon lose the battle of speed and efficiency.

A big reason for Night March’s continued success is its ability to evolve with each new expansion. When players try to use Abilities such as Crobat’s Surprise Bite to take down the 30-HP Joltik, Hex Maniac is there to shut them down. If players try to use Enhanced Hammer to take advantage of the deck’s reliance on Double Colorless Energy, Puzzle of Time can get that Energy back. Even cards such as Fighting Fury Belt give the minuscule Pokémon extra HP to make them more difficult to take out. And now Mew can give the deck more versatility by attacking without putting a Night March Pokémon in harm’s way.

If there’s one thing that might put a halt to Night March’s dominance, it’s the return of the Supporter card N. Typically, if you’re playing Night March, whichever low-HP Pokémon you’re attacking with will get Knocked Out the next turn, and you’ll need another Double Colorless Energy to power up the next one. If the opponent has a well-timed N to reduce your hand size, you might not be able to find the necessary cards to keep attacking, which could leave a window for your opponent to make a comeback. And if that isn’t enough, the next strategy is one of the top counters to Night March decks.

Fear the Forest

With the addition of Trevenant BREAK from XY—BREAKpoint, Trevenant decks made an instant impact on the Expanded format. The idea is fairly simple: use Wally to get Trevenant out on the first turn of the game, shutting down the opponent’s Item cards with the Forest’s Curse Ability. Most competitive decks use around 20 Item cards, meaning that about a third of their deck can’t even be used! This kind of disruption can win games on its own, and now the 160-HP Trevenant BREAK makes the strategy downright devastating. At first, players were hesitant to use this in the Standard format without access to Jirachi-EX’s Stellar Guidance as a reliable way to search for Wally, but it was only a matter of time until this powerful strategy caught on.

Heading into US Nationals, Trevenant is a top choice because it’s one of the few decks that can boast a good matchup against Night March. If Forest’s Curse can activate before the opponent can use Battle Compressor, the Night March deck is in major trouble. Without access to Item cards, it becomes much more difficult to put Night March Pokémon into the discard pile, severely limiting the damage output of Joltik and Pumpkaboo. Trevenant decks also tend to use Bursting Balloon, which can deter low-HP Pokémon from attacking—or make them severely regret it.

While the Trevenant deck has a lot of great attributes, a lot of players shy away from using it because it’s very reliant on winning the opening coin flip. The difference between a Trevenant deck going first or going second is like night and day. If the opponent gets just one turn to use Item cards, it might be all they need to overwhelm Trevenant’s low damage output—it’s the difference between being able to play Ultra Ball to find a Shaymin-EX and draw extra cards, or being forced to pass the turn without doing anything. Trevenant also has a Weakness to Darkness-type decks, which have been popular this season. But the strength of this deck cannot be ignored, and players will have to prepare for it.

Giant Water Shuriken

Strategies that focus on attacking with Stage 2 Pokémon haven’t fared well in tournament play recently, but Greninja from XY—BREAKpoint has managed to sneak into the competitive scene. It starts with Frogadier’s Water Duplicates attack, which prepares a swarm of Frogadier to evolve into Greninja quickly. Then you can choose between the extremely disruptive Shadow Stitching attack or the deceptively powerful Moonlight Slash attack, both of which are incredibly efficient and fast. But the real strength of this deck lies in the mighty Greninja BREAK, a 170-HP Pokémon with the game-changing Giant Water Shuriken Ability. Once this Pokémon comes into play, damage can start flying everywhere, and it’s hard for most decks to keep up.

The major hurdle for Greninja BREAK is that it’s essentially a “Stage 3” Pokémon, and it takes a few turns to evolve that many times. Whereas the Night March deck is all about blazing speed and aggression, Greninja realistically won’t start doing any damage until the third turn of the game. The typical game plan for this deck is to get a few Froakie out on the first turn, use Frogadier’s Water Duplicates on the second turn, and then finally get a bunch of Greninja going on the third turn. By the time Greninja makes it into play, there’s a good chance you’ll be down a few Prize cards and will have to make a comeback. With that in mind, Greninja decks tend to use a lot of Ace Trainer and N to constantly disrupt the opponent’s hand, plus Jirachi’s Stardust attack to stall for some time to evolve. It’s a struggle to get Greninja BREAK into play before the opponent takes too many Prize cards—but when you do, it won’t take long to overwhelm the opponent with Giant Water Shuriken.

Players have started to shift to a more defensive strategy by using Rough Seas and Hard Charm to keep Greninja BREAK battling as long as possible. Rough Seas is particularly important against Trevenant BREAK’s Silent Fear attack, since it can heal the 30 damage done by Silent Fear every turn. Giving up a few Prize cards early in the game won’t be as big a deal if your Pokémon can withstand a few attacks later in the game. Some players opt to use Bursting Balloon instead of Hard Charm, since the threat of taking 6 damage counters might prevent the opponent from attacking at all. Muscle Band is another option, giving Greninja some extra attack power once it comes into play. The beauty of this Greninja BREAK deck is that its mechanics are unlike any other deck’s, and players are still discovering the best way to build it. If someone finds a way to harness the full power of Greninja BREAK, there’s the potential for a truly incredible deck.

Tricky Darkness 

Darkness-type Pokémon have had incredible tournament success over the past few years, and this season is no exception. In the Expanded format, decks focusing on Yveltal-EX have been incredibly dominant. But in the Standard format, the prevalence of Night March decks has made using Yveltal-EX (which has Weakness to Lightning types like Joltik) quite risky, so the focus has shifted more towards non-EX Pokémon instead. Zoroark tends to be the centerpiece now, with the non-EX Yveltal as backup.

The major appeal of this kind of deck is that it has a decent chance to beat just about any strategy. Zoroark’s Mind Jack is a low-cost attack that does an exceptional job of taking down the opponent’s Shaymin-EX, which is used in nearly every competitive deck. Target Whistle can bring a defeated Shaymin-EX out of the opponent’s discard pile and onto the Bench, and then Lysandre can make it the Active Pokémon for another easy two-Prize-card KO. This combination is capable of taking a quick win against many strategies if you can find the cards to pull it off. Darkness-type decks seem to have constant success at events, and their ability to adapt to the ever-changing play environment is a big reason why.

Water, Water Everywhere

Lately an intriguing new deck including several Water-type Pokémon has appeared on the competitive horizon, including a victory at the German National Championships. The deck’s main Pokémon is the familiar Seismitoad-EX, but not quite in the way we’re used to seeing. Traditionally, the Vibration Pokémon has been all about the Quaking Punch attack to keep the opponent from playing Item cards. While that’s still an effective strategy, this deck aims to use Grenade Hammer instead to overwhelm the opponent with quick damage. It might seem bizarre, but it has proven to be effective.

Normally, Seismitoad-EX decks use a lot of Double Colorless Energy to power its attacks, but this version has no Special Energy cards at all. The idea is to get one or two Energy onto a Benched Pokémon with Max Elixir, attach a Water Energy to the Active Pokémon, and retreat for no cost thanks to Manaphy-EX’s Aqua Tube Ability. If necessary, Energy Switch can also move a basic Energy from a Benched Pokémon to the Active Pokémon. It’s instant offense—just add water.

The selling point for this deck is that it matches up well against some of the most popular decks. Night March decks struggle to deal with Quaking Punch from Seismitoad-EX, especially when it has a Fighting Fury Belt to boost its HP to 220. Trevenant decks can’t do enough damage to take down these big Pokémon-EX when Rough Seas heals 30 damage every turn. The Froakie and Frogadier in Greninja decks can easily be taken down by Articuno, whose Δ Plus Ancient Trait grants an extra Prize card when it Knocks Out a Pokémon. Glaceon-EX gives the deck even more strength by guarding against Evolution Pokémon. The biggest question is whether this deck will continue to have success now that players are prepared for it.

Rapid Metal

Of all the Pokémon from the XY—Fates Collide expansion, Genesect-EX is the one that has emerged as the biggest powerhouse in the Standard format so far. It pairs extremely well with Bronzong’s Metal Links Ability for a fast, hard-hitting strategy. This style of deck already had success at the Italian National Championships, so it might pick up steam heading into US Nationals. For details on how it works, check out our recent strategic analysis of the deck.

Genesect-EX has the raw power to go toe to toe with any Pokémon, but it has some key backup Pokémon that help against some of the top strategies. Night March decks usually don’t include any basic Energy cards, so Aegislash-EX and its Mighty Shield Ability can make a difference, especially when a Fighting Fury Belt is giving it extra HP. Bronzong BREAK’s Metal Rain attack is also helpful, providing the option to take down multiple low-HP Joltik and Pumpkaboo in a single attack. Greninja’s Shadow Stitching attack can shut down a lot of this deck’s strategy, but the latest Bronzong can protect your Benched Pokémon with its Metal Fortress Ability—ensuring that you get to use Metal Links to constantly power up Genesect-EX. Don’t be surprised if this deck makes an impact at Nationals.

With so many creative strategies and talented Trainers at the US National Championships, it’s sure to be an exciting event. Who will be crowned National Champion? Which strategy will prove to be the best? We’ll find out on when the event starts on July 1.

Remember that the US National Championships is an open event, and anyone who has earned the minimum number of Play! Points can participate. You’re encouraged to register online, but on-site registration will also be available. Spectators are always welcome, so come watch and cheer for your favorite Pokémon TCG, video game, and Pokkén Tournament players. We hope to see you in Columbus!